Bourgeois revolution

North Korean economics expert Andrei Lankov (of whom I am a very big fan) has a piece in The Korea Times today about the improving economic conditions in North Korea over the last ten years and why, contrary to expectations, this may not be good for the Kim regime:

It has often been assumed that the extreme deprivation is what might trigger the regime collapse in North Korea. This indeed might be the case, but world history shows that people seldom rebel when their lives are really desperate. In a time of mass starvation people are too busy looking for food.
Most revolutions happen in times of relative prosperity. A typical revolution is initiated (or at least prepared) by the people who have the time and energy to discuss larger issues. Another condition for a revolutionary outbreak is a widespread belief that an attractive alternative to the current existence is available.

That's an incredibly important point, and it's why (in my view) those who oppose engagement with North Korea because it somehow "rewards" the regime for bad behavior are so mistaken. My reading has suggested that the hard line on North Korea taken by the Lee Myung-Bak administration in the South means that some of this economic progress is being turned around - if that's true, and if Lankov's right, we could be extending the life of the Kim regime, not shortening it.

The news from North Korea

Really interesting piece in The Atlantic this month about grassroots journalism getting information in and out of North Korea:

[S]ince 2004, a half-dozen independent media organizations have been launched in Northeast Asia to communicate with North Koreans—to bring news out of the country as well as to get potentially destabilizing information in. These media insurgents have a two-pronged strategy, integrating Cold War methods (Voice of America–like shortwave broadcasts in; samizdat-like info out) and 21st-century hardware: SD chips, thumb drives, CDs, e-books, miniature recording devices, and cell phones. And as with all intelligence-gathering projects, their most valuable assets are human: a network of reporters in North Korea and China who dispatch a stream of reports, whether about the palace intrigue surrounding the choice of Kim Jong Il’s successor, or the price of flour in Wŏnsan.

The Kremlinology of North Korea: "Furry Hat Offers Clues to Progress of N.Korean Succession", Chosun Ilbo

Chosun Ilbo reports that Kim Jong-Eun has now graduated to wearing the same kind of ugly, furry hat that his father does.

A senior South Korean government official last Friday said Kim Jong-un seems to have moved up to the same rank as his father. "The most conspicuous sign is that Kim Jong-un has started wearing a top-quality furry hat that only Kim Jong-il has been wearing so far," the official added.

A former senior North Korean official identified as Choi, who has defected to South Korea, said, "The hat was customized by a foreign master craftsman using top-quality otter fur. It's an unwritten rule that nobody else can wear such a hat, so if Kim Jong-un is also wearing one, it means he has now reached almost the same status as his father."

Just kind of underscores how little concept we have of what's going on in the North Korean government, don't you think?