Politico is not exactly the most high-brow publication out there. But today's article, "GOP reality check: Obama looking tougher to beat in 2012", if it's accurate, shows that the Republicans still really don't get it. The premise of the article is that the Republican optimism of the last two years that Obama would go the way of Jimmy Carter in 2012 was perhaps misplaced. Why? Well let's let the Republican frontbench explain it:
Mike Huckabee: “You just don’t go against a billion-dollar mountain of money, a guy who’s already won the presidency once – but he gets to fly in on Air Force One and make all his campaign stops with the trappings of the office.”
Haley Barbour: “Incumbent presidents don’t lose very often, particularly if it’s a president who has taken over from the other party.”
Chris Christie: “He proved he could win once, so that’s one more time than anybody else who has run.”
That last is a staggeringly stupid thing for a pretty smart guy to say. So never mind Obama's policy successes, never mind his statesmanship, never mind any of the man's actual talents. And also never mind the GOP's lack of coherent policies, lack of desire to govern rather than score points, lack of party coherence and above all lack of a candidate. Obama will win because he's already president. I mean, like, duh.
There are more sensible people who offer their opinions in the article. But, significantly, none of them are running for president. It seems like the smart folks in the Republican Party are sitting this one out. So who does that leave us with? Seems to me like a whole slate of not-yet-candidates who each have at least one big reason that they're unelectable. Here's my breakdown, for what it's worth:
Mitt Romney: The next-in-line, which Republicans love. But he can't carry the Christian Right because he's Mormon and used to support abortion. He can't win the general because he's flip-flopped too many times on too many important issues - and he can't go after Obama on healthcare, because Obamacare and Romneycare are like twins separated at birth.
Mike Huckabee: Darling of the mainstream Christian Right, target of unfettered scorn by the Tea Party contingent for somehow being a big-government conservative. His views on immigration are also deeply unpopular with the party, and his fair tax idea makes him look like a loon. Also, he's making plenty of money at Fox - why give all that up?
Newt Gingrich: I have no idea why Gingrich thinks he's a viable candidate. He has so many flaws - a bad public image, bad family values (and that's not even talking about the bad policies). Plus he's old and hasn't done anything for more than a decade. Dead on arrival.
Tim Pawlenty: No charisma, no public profile, no name recognition - 2012's Fred Thompson.
Haley Barbour: An obvious racist who most people would find it disgusting to vote for.
Mitch Daniels: The Charisma-Free Wonder has a small but growing following in the GOP and a reputation as a moderate. If he runs (and it doesn't seem like he wants to) he could be 2012's John Kerry - a man of considerable political talent who simply can't appear on television without making a fool of himself. If he gets the nod it'll be because no one likes him but he's viewed as "electable" - which is all the proof you need that he'll lose.
Rick Santorum: Just go ahead and Google him. I dare you.
Sarah Palin: Obliterated her political career with the blood-libel comment. And no one would ever have voted for her anyway.
There are other potential candidates, obviously, I just don't think most of them are worth a mention. (I mean, John Huntsman? Really?) But the fact that no one has formally declared yet shows you what dire straits the Republicans are in for the presidency.
I think Romney, Huckabee or Daniels could each potentially be strong candidates in a general, if they can make it through the primary. Romney looks and feels presidential, and so does Daniels, although he's a little on the meek side. Huckabee's a nut, but he's got the charisma to mask it. But none of their political talents matches up to Obama's. And let's not forget the possibility of an independent Tea Party candidate splitting the vote on the Right à la Ross Perot in 1992 - made more likely by the fact that none of these candidates is appealing to all segments of the Republican coalition.
So if you ask me the smart money's on Obama. Which is why the smart Republicans are sitting this one out. Poison chalice, anyone?
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