"The View from Tahrir", by Nicholas Kristof

Nicholas Kristof writing on his blog about what he saw on Tahrir Square today:

In my area of Tahrir, the thugs were armed with machetes, straight razors, clubs and stones. And they all had the same chants, the same slogans and the same hostility to journalists. They clearly had been organized and briefed. So the idea that this is some spontaneous outpouring of pro-Mubarak supporters, both in Cairo and in Alexandria, who happen to end up clashing with other side — that is preposterous. It’s difficult to know what is happening, and I’m only one observer, but to me these seem to be organized thugs sent in to crack heads, chase out journalists, intimidate the pro-democracy forces and perhaps create a pretext for an even harsher crackdown.

This sounds like a classic case of agents provocateurs. I think it's fair to say that this kind of thing is in the standard repertory of your tinpot dictator - empty the jails, pay off the poor to protest in your favor and coordinate the whole thing with plainclothes policemen, that kind of thing - and I had expected that a lot of the looting that was going on in Egypt already was an instance of government-sponsored mischief-making to simulate a security crisis.

I'd thought the situation was so far gone that Mubarak had no control over the security forces anymore, but this might suggest otherwise. If these are agents provocateurs, then this means that the police are still on Mubarak's side. Again, the actions of the military will be key. There's every chance Mubarak could send them in to arrest a lot of protesters, or, at worst, shoot a lot of people. I don't think it would come to that, but if it does it will mean Mubarak has completely given up on any pretense of a popular mandate. Another option is he could try to send them in, and the military could refuse. But the soldiers in Tahrir Square not intervening is not a good sign.

In my view, Mubarak is trying to hold onto power so that he can ensure a smooth succession to his new Vice President and make sure that the regime survives without him. I would guess that the Obama administration implicitly supports this, as in their view it would be the next-best thing to the status quo ante: a stable, pro-American, pro-Israel Egypt with the Islamists shut firmly out of power. We'll see what happens. I am very suddenly much less optimistic for the chances for democracy in Egypt.